José Malheiros, a geographer and migration specialist, has already admitted that these immigration flows will not solve the problem of aging in Portugal. And he does not hesitate: “We are and will continue to age.”
The Portuguese population is getting older and births are not enough to reverse this trend. To make matters worse, 63,237 babies were born between January and September, 430 fewer than in the same period last year. The data was released by the National Institute of Health Doutor Ricardo Jorge (Insa) and contradicts the figures from the last two years, which pointed to consecutive increases, which suggests a new drop in the birth rate.
And the decline was only not more pronounced due to the contribution to the birth rate made by foreign women.
On the other hand, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics, Portugal recorded 886 more deaths in the first six months of last year compared to the same period in 2023. In total, around 61,000 people died in Portugal in the first half of the year. In June alone, there were more than 9,000 deaths, 338 more than in June last year.
Infant mortality has also been rising. Last year alone, 261 babies under one year of age died. This is the highest number since 2019. Unequal access to health care and poorly monitored pregnancies may explain this increase.
Can the 'new blood' of immigration save these numbers? José Malheiros, a geographer and migration specialist, has already admitted that these immigration flows will not solve the problem of aging in Portugal. “We are and will continue to age. Immigrants will not reverse the aging process and it is good to be aware of this. From a macro perspective, many countries from which immigrants come are also aging,” he explains. He adds: “We are not going to have the country suddenly have more births than deaths in the coming years. Therefore, this influx of immigrants could cause the total number of inhabitants in the country to remain stable or grow a little, reversing what happened in the last decade.”
Despite acknowledging that the fertility rate continues to be low, he admits that the contribution of immigrants “despite everything mitigates” the process of reducing the number of births in the country.
Widespread problem
The problem of low birth rates and ageing does not only affect Portugal. Europe's population is ageing and by 2030, most countries in the European Union will see the number of workers over 50 years of age increase to 55% of the total workforce. Estimates from the European Commission also reveal that Portugal, Greece, Italy and Spain are among the top 10 countries with the lowest birth rates in the world.
But many others are joining this group, and earlier this year, even China saw its population fall for the first time in 60 years. At the end of 2023, it had 1,411.75 billion people, compared to 1,412.6 billion in 2021. According to experts, the drop of 850,000 people marks the beginning of a population decline in the country, despite Beijing's efforts to reverse the trend.
Jorge Malheiros points out that even in sub-Saharan Africa, where fertility rates are still higher – around three births per thousand, but which have now reached five and six – fertility rates are also falling. The same scenario is repeated in North Africa, with rates around two, as is the case in Tunisia. “It is true that in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East there are still high synthetic fertility rates, but these are also falling. In India, where they were high, they are falling. In South and Central America they have also fallen significantly”, he points out.
And he doesn't hesitate: “These levels of aging are much more significant in Europe, but they are also very significant in China and are clearly starting to be worrying in Latin America and the American continent in general”, which leads him to ask: “How are we going to live with a population that has a demographic pyramid shape, where the percentage of people over 60 and over 80 is very high?”
What is causing this drop
According to the geographer, the possibility of planning is one of the main reasons for this phenomenon. “This is fundamental and it affects everyone. The fact that sexuality can be separated from reproduction has been demonstrated everywhere, even in the most conservative countries, such as Islamic countries. There are ways to control birth rates and contraceptives are used, in some cases more, in others less. Male contraceptives are also used.”
The majority of the population of childbearing age knows that they can control their fertility. “Of course, this is more evident in some cases than in others, but almost everyone knows that they can do it and a large proportion do it.”
Another reason, the university professor explains, is the model of society that has become widespread. “This fast-paced society exists here, but it also exists in Cairo, Nigeria and Asian countries, and therefore the conditions that lead to a decrease in fertility are present everywhere. What mitigates this? Cultural factors, which in some cases make it faster and in others slower. Factors that are related to the degree of emancipation of women. It is known that women’s emancipation in terms of education is closely associated with their ability to effectively decide when and how many children they want to have.”
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