Research by the Faculty of Economics (FEP) of the University of Porto shows what number is needed for the country to enter the group of the richest members of the European Union by 2030.
The argument that Portugal needs immigrants to fill the country's job market is nothing new. Every year, reports and studies show this need. Now, the Faculty of Economics of the University of Porto (FEP) has discovered another argument: the need to improve the country's position in the European Union (EU) wealth ranking.
The analysis is in the third and final chapter of the first issue of the recently published publication Economia & Empresas . According to Óscar Afonso, director of FEP, 138,000 new immigrants are needed annually for the country to be able to enter the group of the richest members of the bloc by 2033. “Between 1999 and 2022, we grew at 0.9% per year and this implied an average annual influx of 49,000 immigrants”, explains Afonso. If the number of foreigners residing in the country does not increase, according to the study, “the population, by 2033, will decrease by around 5% or 8%”, he highlights.
This would mean that Portugal would fall further and further behind in the European bloc. “To grow, we need people and we cannot pay better wages if we do not grow. Growth frees up resources, which can then be used for investment and consumption,” argues the researcher.
The study analyses the natural growth rate (the difference between the birth rate and the death rate) and the migration growth rate (the immigration rate minus the emigration rate) in the countries of the European Union between 1999 and 2022. While Eastern European countries, such as Romania, Lithuania, the Czech Republic and Poland, manage to double their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) every 20 years, Portugal, with the growth rate it has had, only manages to do so after 80 years.
“If Portugal wants to be among the richest half of the countries, it has to grow more. And to grow more, it has to grow in immigrants. And immigrants are, in this sense, very welcome and necessary”, analyses the economist.
For the director of FEP, the numbers and data deconstruct myths. “It dispels the myth that immigrants replace nationals: that is a lie, it dispels the myth that immigrants come and then the Portuguese have to emigrate. It dispels many myths and imposes on the State the need to create public policies to attract immigrants, if it wants to change the way things are”, he argues.
More than 138 thousand
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If the number found by the investigation is 138,000, Portugal is on the right track. In 2023, 328,978 new residence permits were granted, according to the Migration and Asylum Report (RMA), released by the Agency for Integration, Migration and Asylum (AIMA) this week. In the last five years, in 2019, 2022 and 2023, the number of foreigners with a Residence Permit exceeded 138,000.
However, due to the country's immigration system and the time it takes for an immigrant to receive the document that officially places them in this statistic, the figures do not reflect the annual influx of immigrants into the country. For example, of the 328,978 new residence permits granted over the past year, almost 200,000 had already been in the country for one or two years.
Despite defending the need for immigrants with data, the same study reinforces that the Government needs to “look at some needs to maintain demographic dynamics”, explains Óscar Afonso, without neglecting public policies that encourage birth rates. Improving the quality of the National Health Service (SNS), investing in the training of immigrants and increasing financial resources for AIMA are other relevant factors, the economist analyses.
The director of FEP hopes that the results of the research will be taken into account by the Government when creating and implementing public policies. “A more dynamic economy and a higher standard of living presuppose that Portugal organizes itself to welcome an even greater flow of immigrants in the future in a controlled manner, including mechanisms linked to economic development, such as the prior requirement of an employment contract and the assessment of the needs of company workers, accompanied by appropriate supervision”, he concludes.
amanda.lima@dn.pt
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