On a Sunday marked by high expectations, the polls in Portugal confirmed the continuity of the government of the Democratic Alliance (AD), led by Prime Minister Luís Montenegro. The center-right coalition secured victory in the parliamentary elections, but without winning an absolute majority, which points to future negotiations in Parliament. The surprise, however, came with the performance of the far-right Chega party, which technically tied with the Socialist Party (PS) in number of deputies. The vote, held on May 18, 2025, revealed a fragmented political scenario, with abstention between 36% and 42%, according to preliminary data.
Chega, led by André Ventura, has consolidated itself as a significant force, quadrupling its number of seats since 2019 and reaching around 25% of the vote, according to projections by Pitagórica for CNN Portugal. This result put the party in a tie with the PS, which suffered one of the worst defeats in its recent history. The election also exposed social tensions, with anti-immigration rhetoric gaining ground in a country that is home to 1.5 million foreigners, including the largest Brazilian community in Europe.
To understand what is at stake, some points highlight the impact of this vote:
- The Democratic Alliance obtained between 30.3% and 35.1% of the votes, according to different polls.
- Chega can elect up to 58 deputies, equaling the PS, but it depends on the counting of votes from abroad.
- The high abstention reflects discontent with political instability, after three elections in three years.
- Anti-immigration rhetoric was central to the campaign, generating protests from communities such as the Roma.
The final count, including votes from Portuguese people abroad, such as in Brazil, will be decisive in defining the tiebreaker between Chega and PS, with official results expected after 10 pm on election day.
Political scenario before the vote
The 2025 election campaign was marked by increasing polarization. The Democratic Alliance, composed mainly of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), entered the race with the advantage of leading in the polls, but faced criticism for adopting a tougher stance on immigration in an attempt to attract Chega voters. Luís Montenegro, who took office after winning in 2024, sought to highlight economic advances and stability, even after the fall of his executive in March 2025, due to a scandal involving his family business.
The Socialist Party, led by Pedro Nuno Santos, entered the elections weakened. After decades of influence, including an absolute majority in 2022, the PS suffered from accumulated wear and tear, such as accusations of corruption in the government of António Costa and the loss of support among center-left voters. The socialist campaign focused on social policies and criticism of the AD's approach to ultra-rightist agendas, but failed to reverse the disadvantage at the polls.
On the other hand, Chega capitalized on popular discontent. André Ventura, known for controversial statements against immigrants and minorities, intensified his rhetoric during the campaign, associating immigration with problems such as crime, despite data showing a 23% drop in the number of foreign prisoners in Portugal over the last ten years. The party faced protests, especially from the Roma community, which accused Ventura of racism, but maintained steady growth, attracting voters disillusioned with traditional two-party politics.
Chega's meteoric rise
Founded in 2019, Chega has gone from a marginal party to the third largest force in the Portuguese Parliament in just a few years. In the 2024 election, it had already quadrupled its number of seats, electing 50 deputies. In 2025, projections indicate that the party could reach 58 deputies, a historic leap that reflects its ability to exploit social discontent. Ventura celebrated the partial result, declaring that Chega “killed bipartisanship” in Portugal.
The party's growth is linked to a clear strategy:
- Anti-system discourse : Chega positions itself against the traditional political elite, criticizing both the AD and the PS.
- Focus on immigration : The anti-immigration rhetoric, while based on questionable premises, has resonated with voters concerned about the 248,000-strong increase in foreigners entering the country by 2024.
- Social media presence : Ventura uses platforms like X to amplify messages, often based on misinformation, such as the association between immigration and crime.
- Protests as fuel : Clashes with protesters, such as those from the Roma community, were used to reinforce the system’s victim narrative
Despite its success, Chega faces challenges. Its reliance on Ventura as a central figure and controversial episodes, such as his discomfort during a rally in Tavira, raise doubts about the party’s long-term sustainability. In addition, the lack of concrete data to support its main causes, such as the alleged link between immigration and crime, has been criticized by organizations such as Casa do Brasil in Lisbon.
Reelection of the Democratic Alliance
The victory of the Democratic Alliance, although without an absolute majority, guarantees Luís Montenegro's continuity as prime minister. The coalition obtained between 30.3% and 35.1% of the votes, according to polls by SIC and Pitagórica, consolidating its position as the main political force in the country. However, the lack of a majority forces the AD to seek alliances, either with smaller parties, such as the Liberal Initiative, which fell from 8 to 2 deputies, or in specific negotiations with Chega, something that Montenegro promised to avoid.
During the campaign, AD highlighted economic measures, such as incentives for small businesses and tax cuts, but was criticized for its approach to immigration. Montenegro advocated “regulating” the entry of foreigners, promising to expel undocumented immigrants, an agenda that echoed Chega’s rhetoric. This strategy, according to analysts, was aimed at containing the advance of the far right, but it generated tensions with immigrant communities, including the 400,000 Brazilians officially documented in Portugal.
Reelection also brings administrative challenges. The Agency for Integration, Migration and Asylum (AIMA), responsible for regularizing immigrants, is facing operational chaos, with 347,000 people, most of them Brazilians, waiting for documents. The strike by AIMA employees, which began in 2024, is expected to last for months, further complicating the situation.
Impact of immigration on the campaign
Immigration has emerged as a central issue in the 2025 election, reflecting a global phenomenon of rising anti-immigrant rhetoric. Portugal, which has historically benefited from foreign labor, has seen the debate heat up with the arrival of 1.5 million immigrants, an increase of 248,000 compared to 2024. Brazilians, the largest foreign-born community, contributed significantly to social security, with €668.9 million in 2022, but face increasing hostility.
Chega led the offensive against immigrants, proposing measures such as a plebiscite to limit the entry of foreigners and the review of social benefits. AD, in turn, announced notifications for thousands of immigrants to leave the country voluntarily, a measure criticized as electoralist by opposition parties. The Socialist Party accused Montenegro of competing for votes with the far right, while organizations such as the Joint Action Group Against Racism and Xenophobia warned of the risk of discriminatory policies.
Some numbers illustrate the complexity of the topic:
- In 2023, 345 Brazilians received notifications of voluntary abandonment, a 23% drop compared to 2022.
- AIMA processes around 18,000 regularization requests annually, but faces chronic delays.
- Immigrants contribute to record Social Security collections, challenging the “dependency” narrative.
- Cases of discrimination against Brazilians have increased, according to reports from local NGOs.
Protests marked the campaign, with the gypsy community confronting Ventura in cities such as Viana do Castelo. Brazilians also mobilized, with initiatives such as “Brazil is also here”, which sought to engage Portuguese-Brazilian voters against the far right.
Historic defeat of the Socialist Party
The Socialist Party suffered one of its worst defeats since the 1980s, with projections indicating 25.4% to 25.8% of the vote. The technical tie with Chega, both with around 58 deputies, represents a blow to the party that dominated Portuguese politics for decades. Pedro Nuno Santos' leadership tried to win back voters with promises of social policies, but was unable to overcome the accumulated wear and tear.
The PS's decline began in 2024, when António Costa resigned amid corruption investigations. The dissolution of Parliament and the calling of early elections further weakened the party, which lost support to AD and Chega. The counting of votes from abroad, including the two deputies elected by the constituency outside Europe, will be crucial in determining whether the PS will be able to overtake Chega in the final number of seats.
Political instability persists
Portugal held its third parliamentary election in three years, reflecting the political instability that has marked the country since 2022. The fall of Montenegro’s government in March 2025, after irregularities in its family business were revealed, led to the election being called. President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa dissolved parliament but warned of the need for stability, a call that seems distant with the fragmentation of the new parliament.
The lack of an absolute majority for the AD complicates the formation of a government. Although Montenegro has rejected formal alliances with Chega, the approval of budgets and bills may depend on negotiations with the far-right. Smaller parties, such as the Liberal Initiative and the Left Bloc, have also lost strength, reducing coalition options.
Role of overseas votes
Votes from Portuguese voters abroad, especially in Brazil, could change the final result. The constituency outside Europe elects two deputies, and in 2024, AD and Chega shared these seats. Logistical problems, such as the non-delivery of paper ballots, prevented some voters in Brazil from casting their ballots, leading to criticism of the electoral organization. The counting of these votes, which should be completed in the days following the election, will be closely monitored by PS and Chega, who are competing for second place.
The Brazilian community in Portugal, with 400,000 documented members, has felt the effects of the anti-immigration campaign. Many fear setbacks in rights, such as access to Portuguese citizenship, which the AD government has promised to make more difficult by increasing the required residency period from five to seven years. The regularization of immigrants, already compromised by the crisis at AIMA, remains one of the biggest challenges for the new government.
Social tensions on the rise
The 2025 elections exposed deep divisions in Portuguese society. Anti-immigration rhetoric, amplified by Chega, sparked protests from minority and immigrant communities. In cities such as Lisbon and Porto, demonstrations against the far-right brought together thousands of people, including Brazilians who oppose Ventura’s policies. The Roma community, frequently targeted by Chega, stepped up its mobilization, confronting the far-right leader at rallies.
Despite the tensions, the violence was contained by the police, who avoided major clashes. Human rights organizations, such as Casa do Brasil, criticized the creation of a police unit to monitor immigrants, proposed by AD and supported by Chega. The measure, which is awaiting approval in Parliament, reinforces the association between immigration and public security, a discourse that worries defenders of the rights of foreigners.
Economic scenario at stake
The coalition's re-election comes at a time of economic challenges. Portugal is facing inflationary pressures and difficulties in its national health system (SNS), which has suffered from strikes and emergency room closures. The coalition has promised infrastructure investments and tax cuts, but the lack of an absolute majority could make it difficult to pass measures in parliament.
Chega, in turn, proposed cuts in social benefits for immigrants, a measure that goes against the economic contribution of foreigners. Recent data shows that immigrants, especially Brazilians, are essential for the sustainability of Social Security, with record collections in recent years. The tension between economic growth and restrictive policies will be one of the main debates of the new government.
Mobilization of the Brazilian community
The Brazilian community, which represents the largest foreign population in Portugal, played an active role in the election. Initiatives such as “Brazil is also here” sought to engage Portuguese-Brazilian voters, warning them of the risks of the rise of the far right. Personalities such as sociologist Thaís França highlighted the importance of involving Brazilians in Portuguese politics, especially in a context of growing discrimination.
Although most Brazilians in Portugal do not have the right to vote, those with Portuguese citizenship participated actively, divided between supporting the PS and the AD. The Chega campaign, which included Brazilians such as Marcus Santos in its leadership, tried to attract Portuguese-Brazilians with a speech of integration, but faced criticism for its xenophobic positions.
Challenges for the new Parliament
The parliament elected in 2025 will be one of the most fragmented in Portugal’s recent history. The Democratic Alliance will have to navigate a complex scenario, with Chega pushing for influence and the PS trying to rebuild itself as the opposition. Smaller parties, such as the Left Bloc and the Portuguese Communist Party, will also seek space, despite having lost relevance at the polls.
Some points that should dominate parliamentary discussions include:
- Immigration reform : AD promised to tighten residency and citizenship rules, while Chega advocates even more restrictive measures.
- 2026 Budget : Approval of the budget will depend on negotiations between parties, with Chega conditioning its support on anti-immigration agendas.
- Crisis at AIMA : The regularization of immigrants requires urgent reforms at the agency, which is facing strikes and delays.
- Political stability : After three elections in three years, pressure for a lasting government is high.
The fragmentation of Parliament and the strengthening of the far right signal a period of intense debates, with immigration and the economy at the center of attention.