Municipalities with a higher proportion of immigrants have lower crime rates
Odemira, where almost half of the population is foreign, has a lower crime rate per inhabitant than Lisbon. A sociologist warns that what has increased is crime against immigrants.
The idea that increased immigration leads to more crime is a myth: this is exactly what sociologist Catarina Reis Oliveira concludes, having analysed crime data recorded by the authorities, published by the Directorate-General for Justice Policy, and cross-referenced it with immigration figures. In an analysis carried out at the request of PÚBLICO, the result is clear: crime has fallen in municipalities with a higher absolute number of foreigners; on the other hand, the ratio of crimes per total number of residents is lower in municipalities where the foreign population has a greater impact.
Some examples of municipalities where the foreign population has a significant impact on the resident population, with data from 2023: Vila do Bispo (where immigrants represent 43.68% of the total population), Odemira (41.8%) and Lisbon (28.7%). If there were a direct relationship between immigration and crime, the expectation would be that the increase in resident foreigners would be directly reflected in an increase in crimes recorded by the police authorities. However, “nothing could be more wrong”, concludes the researcher.
The ratio of crimes recorded by the police authorities per total number of residents shows that Odemira has, over the last decade, had a lower proportion of crimes than that recorded for the country as a whole, also distancing itself from the proportion of crimes recorded per total number of residents in Lisbon and Porto, municipalities that have a lower impact of foreign residents (they represented 28.7% and 14.3%, respectively, in 2022).
In Odemira, the proportion of crimes per inhabitant barely increased in ten years when immigration took off: it was 3.2 crimes per 100 residents in 2011, then fell in the following years when immigration increased, and was 3.5 crimes per 100 residents in 2023. The figures are much lower than those of Lisbon, where the ratio was 5.9 crimes per 100 residents. At the same time, the increase in the proportion of foreigners in the total number of residents in these municipalities over the last decade was also not reflected in the evolution of the ratio of crimes recorded by the police authorities per total number of residents.
In Porto, where crimes against immigrants reported in the media have increased, the growing number of foreign residents has not been accompanied by an increase in crime either, with crime even decreasing in the years of greatest increase in immigration, says the sociologist. In 2009, a total of 17,383 crimes were recorded, a year in which 8,809 foreigners were living there. In 2019, crimes fell to 15,422 and the number of foreign residents almost doubled: 14,558. In 2023, the number of foreign residents in Porto doubled again – to 35,653 – and the total number of crimes recorded was 14,552. In Porto, foreigners currently represent 14.3% of the population.
What this analysis reveals is that “the alarmist rhetoric is not supported by the numbers”, says Catarina Reis Oliveira. In municipalities where the foreign population has not increased, crime has increased. In contrast, in places like Odemira, where the proportion of immigrants is much higher, “crime remains stable and below the national average”.
The researcher concludes that “this deconstruction of the myth is essential to combat prejudice and hate speech.” “The real challenge is to ensure that immigrants, who already contribute significantly to the country, are integrated in a fair and equitable manner, with well-established rights and duties.” And he states: “What is really worrying is the effect of this fallacious discourse, which has fueled an increase in violence against immigrants.” The numbers show that the real problem is not immigrants, but the way in which prejudice and misinformation are generating violence against this vulnerable population, he says.