Portugal’s snap national election on Sunday 18 May 2025 – the third general election in as many years – was called after Prime Minister Luís Montenegro’s minority government lost a confidence vote this spring. The vote came amid a decade of “fragile governments, only one of which had a parliamentary majority but which collapsed halfway through its term last year”. President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa dissolved parliament following allegations (the so‑called Spinumviva scandal) involving Montenegro’s family firm, and called early elections for stability. Polling suggests, however, that no party will win an outright majority of the 230 seats, setting the stage for another hung parliament and coalition talks
Opinion Polls and Trends
Recent polls show the centre‑right AD coalition with a clear lead but still far short of a majority. A Catholic University/RTP survey (15 May) gave AD ~34%, up slightly from earlier in May. The Socialist PS was around 26%. Chega held steady near 19%, and IL around 7%. By contrast, leftist parties (Bees and CDU) scored only ~3% each, and LIVRE ~4–5%. Another May poll (ISCTE/Expresso) found similar figures: AD ~32%, PS ~27%, Chega ~19%, IL ~5%, with ~12% undecided. Overall these numbers closely mirror the March 2024 election results (AD 28.8%, PS 28.0%, Chega 18.1% etc), suggesting little shift in party support in the past year.
Poll-of-polls aggregators confirm this pattern: AD in the low‑30s, PS mid‑20s, Chega high‑teens, IL under 10%, others below 5%. Experts note that the outcome will likely be another hung parliament. “It looks highly improbable that any party or alliance will win an outright majority of 116 seats,” writes Al Jazeera, underscoring that “a post-electoral coalition or a minority government” is now almost certain. In practical terms, most forecasters see AD winning the most seats but needing partners. An AD‑IL alliance could form a working majority in theory, but even together their projected vote share (~40%) is shy of a majority. PS would need all left‑wing parties plus IL to challenge that, a complicated arithmetic.
Voter Sentiment and Fatigue
Voters in Portugal are reported as largely frustrated and weary. Many say they just want a stable government and an end to the constant elections. One PS supporter at a recent rally said: “I hope next year I won’t have to vote again, and I hope we have a firm government, which I think is what Portugal needs at the moment”. A Reuters profile notes that after 10 years of fragile coalitions, “the hope for Sunday’s general election is pretty simple: a government that can navigate ... challenges, and an end to the non-stop cycle of polls”. But many feel none of the parties have offered fresh ideas. An office worker in Lisbon told Reuters: “Each party is just saying they are the serious ones and the others are unethical or corrupt… Europe’s economic woes will reach Portugal sooner or later, but I don’t see any of the major parties talking about it”. Political scientists also note voter fatigue: “People really don’t care that much about the issue. They are fed up,” said Jose Tomaz Castello Branco of Católica University, reflecting low enthusiasm beyond wanting functional governance.
Forecast and Coalitions
Almost all analysts agree that no clear majority will emerge. The centre‑right AD is expected to win the plurality of seats but still fall short of 50%. Far‑right Chega, despite being the third‑largest party, will be kept out of power as Montenegro has ruled out any pact with Ventura. That leaves smaller centrist partners. Many observers believe the pro-business IL will be a key kingmaker: a coalition of AD+IL could approach a working majority, though even this may require occasional support from other MPs to pass budgets. Left‑wing strategists for PS likely hope to attract IL’s votes or form a broader anti-AD bloc (with BE, CDU and LIVRE), but those parties’ combined share likely falls short of AD’s reach. A grand coalition between PSD and PS is considered unlikely due to political polarization.
Professor Castello Branco warns that the most likely outcome is more of the same: “the situation will not be that different from what it is today”. In practice, the most probable scenario is another minority government or a fragile coalition, hinging on ad-hoc agreements. Indeed, Al Jazeera notes that either side may try to form post-electoral alliances or govern as a minority requiring “the tacit support of other parties”. If negotiations stall, Castello Branco cautioned, “there could be a prolonged legislative paralysis” before any cohesive government forms. Crucially, Portuguese law forbids a new election until after next January’s presidential vote, so parties will have to seek working compromises – at least temporarily – once parliament sits.
In summary, the 18 May election is forecast to produce a deadlock: AD remains the favorite party but must cobble together partners, while PS and smaller left parties will also seek to block a Chega-influenced administration. The media consensus is that a continued minority government is the most likely outcome, with investors and voters alike bracing for continued political uncertainty.
Sources: Latest opinion polls and political analysis (Reuters, Al Jazeera, others)