The Office of Economic, Business and Public Policy Studies (G3E2P) of the Faculty of Economics of the University of Porto (FEP) presented the third and final chapter of the publication “Economy & Business”, which analyses demographic trends in European Union countries between 1999 and 2022.
The study reveals that emigration in the EU, since the beginning of the millennium, has been predominantly composed of immigrants who, initially attracted by better living conditions, end up leaving in search of new economic opportunities in other countries.
The study contradicts the idea that immigrants push nationals to emigrate, demonstrating that the presence of immigrants, on the contrary, expands the internal market and generates more employment and investment opportunities.
“In Portugal, weak economic growth and the low initial standard of living explain the emigration of a third of our young people”, highlights the Director of FEP, Óscar Afonso.
Portugal is highlighted as a country with a weak capacity to retain immigrants, especially due to its peripheral position in the EU and the lack of effective integration policies. However, the study suggests that the current economic growth, driven by factors such as the RRP and tourism, should be used to retain immigrants before this dynamic runs out.
“In Portugal, we need to take advantage of periods of greater growth, such as the current one (driven by temporary factors such as the RRP and the tourism boom) to retain immigrants attracted by this dynamic before it runs out,” adds Óscar Afonso.
The study's recommendations include the need to strengthen the National Health Service (NHS), improve the integration of immigrants through the formation and strengthening of the Agency for Integration, Migration and Asylum (AIMA), and establish agreements with PALOP countries to attract more immigrants. The creation of a special tax on processed foods, as a way of supporting the NHS, was also suggested.
The study also predicts that, without significant changes in policies, the Portuguese population could decrease by 5.8% by 2033, if economic growth remains at the current 1.11% per year. However, if the country manages to grow at an average of 3% per year, it will be possible to stabilize the population, with a higher immigration rate than in 2022.
“A more dynamic economy and a higher standard of living presuppose that Portugal organizes itself to welcome an even greater flow of immigrants in the future in a controlled manner, including mechanisms linked to economic development, such as the prior requirement of an employment contract and listening to the needs of company workers, accompanied by appropriate supervision”, concludes the Director of FEP.