Immigrants already play a central role in contributions, but obstacles to integration threaten the future balance of Social Security.
Lisbon Jan 29, 2026 — Portugal will need 1.3 million new workers by 2030 to ensure the financial balance of its Social Security system, according to a study developed by the Prepara Portugal Training Center, based on data from the National Institute of Statistics (INE), the Agency for Integration, Migration and Asylum (Aima), Pordata, and the social security system itself. The research starts from a central indicator of pension sustainability, which is the balance between those who are working and those who are already retired.
Actuarial studies and benchmark reports indicate that Portugal needs to approach a level of two and a half active workers for each pensioner to ensure the regular funding of pensions in the coming decades. Currently, this ratio stands at around 1.7 workers per retiree.
This scenario highlights a structural challenge for the country and has been continuously analyzed by Higor Cerqueira, the institution's founder and pedagogical director, who is recognized for his work with the immigrant community and for his technical analysis of the impacts of international mobility on the national economy.
“Based on official records, the study estimates that, to achieve this balance by 2030, a cumulative increase of between 1.2 and 1.3 million net active workers would be necessary. In structural terms, this volume corresponds to the need to compensate for the departure of approximately 500,000 people to retirement, in a country marked by an aging population,” explains Cerqueira, who, in March, will head the Estrela do Atlântico award, which recognizes initiatives by immigrants in Europe.
The investigations, coordinated by instructor Pedro Stob as part of the Data Analysis and IT Applied to Management course, use publicly available statistical series covering the period between 2010 and 2025.
The indicators also show that the number of immigrants residing in the country increased from approximately 430,000 in 2010 to more than 1.5 million in 2024. As relevant as the absolute growth is the age composition of this population. Around 85% of immigrants are of working age, between 18 and 64 years old. The employment rate of this population reached 67% in 2025, according to data from the INE (National Institute of Statistics) and Social Security, approaching the employment rate of nationals, which is around 72% in the same period.
This increase in the active population has a direct impact on the social protection system. Portugal currently has an elderly dependency ratio of over 37%, according to the National Institute of Statistics, which means there is a growing number of pensioners for each active worker.
“A scenario of rupture between taxpayers and pensioners occurs when the volume of contributions collected is no longer sufficient to ensure the regular payment of pensions, forcing the State to resort, continuously, to transfers from the State Budget, to increasing taxes or to reducing benefits,” warns the pedagogical director.
Pedro Stob adds that the study allows for the objective quantification of this pressure. Each 0.1 variation in this balance between active workers and pensioners corresponds, in practice, to the need for an additional 150,000 to 170,000 people to work and contribute. "In simple terms, small demographic changes quickly translate into tens of thousands of new contributors needed to maintain the financial balance of Social Security," the trainer points out.
Between 2010 and 2025, the participation of immigrant workers in the social security contribution base in Portugal more than doubled, from around 3% to a projected 6% of the total. In absolute terms, the numbers confirm this trend and show that, in 2024, contributions from foreigners exceeded €3.6 billion, representing more than 12% of the total collected by the contributory system, with a positive net balance compared to benefits received by immigrants.
Despite these indicators, the study warns of a structural risk. Delays in the recognition of academic and professional qualifications, in the validation of skills acquired abroad, and in the administrative processes associated with obtaining and renewing legal residency have led many workers to seek other European countries, reducing Portugal's capacity to retain human capital that contributes to the economy and the social system.
For Higor Cerqueira, this is the central point of the current debate. “The question Portugal needs to address is how many people are actually able to work, contribute, and remain employed. When a qualified professional is prevented from working for months or years, there is a direct cost to the economy and to Social Security, because those contributions cease to exist,” he states.
He emphasizes that effective integration requires not only faster public policies, but also access to information and training aligned with the real needs of the labor market.
"The Prepara Portugal program operates precisely at this intersection between data analysis, technical training, and the practical experience of those who live the migratory process in Portugal on a daily basis," he emphasizes.